Key Takeaways
Prevalence Cases (Exsiting Cases)
The overall prevalence of ulcerative colitis in Hong Kong is steadily rising and is expected to continue increasing. The overall prevalent cases will reach 5498 in 2032 from 3570 in 2022. Female prevalence is expected to grow more quickly and to approach that of males.
Prevalence Rate
The overall prevalence of ulcerative colitis in Hong Kong is rising and is expected to continue through 2032. The overall prevalent rate will reach 7.14 per 10,000 persons in 2032 from 4.84 per 10,000 persons in 2022. In addition, both prevalent rates in different sexes will keep increasing.

Notes
1. Prevalent cases are persons who were existing cases in the population each year.
2. Prevalent cases from 2023 to 2032 were forecasted using ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) models, trained on historical data from 2003 to 2022.
3. Prevalence rate was calculated by dividing the number of existing cases for that year by the mid-year population estimate.
4. Age standardization was performed using the direct method, with the 2022 Hong Kong Population as the reference.
5. Prevalence rates from 2023 to 2032 were forecasted using ARIMA models, trained on historical data from 2003 to 2022.

Average annual percentage change (AAPC) indicates the average yearly rate of increase or decrease in a value over a specified period.

Key Takeaways
The healthcare costs of ulcerative in Hong Kong are projected to increase gradually from HK$82.48 million in 2023 to HK$150.94 million in 2032. The cost spent on patients with ulcerative colitis on inpatient, outpatient, and accident & emergency will all keep increasing.

Notes
1. The cost refers to the all-cause cost for that calendar year, including all healthcare resource utilization expenses across all settings.
2. Unit costs are based on fees and charges for public hospital services set by the Hospital Authority, effective from 2017.
3. Cost projections (2023–2032) were forecasted using ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) models trained on 2003–2022 data, adjusted for the 2020–2022 pandemic.

Key Takeaways
In 2032, only 18.6% (21/113) and 8.9% (10/113) patients with moderate-to-severe ulcerative will receive advanced therapy within 30 and 30-180 days, while there will be 50.4% (57/113) and 22.1% (25/113) patients not received advanced therapy within 180 days, or dead or get surgery before receiving advanced therapy.

Notes
1. Moderate-to-severe Ulcerative Colitis was defined as steroid-dependent or steroid-refractory, or direct surgery without the use of advanced therapies (biologic therapies and targeted small molecules), or direct use of advanced therapies without the above.
2. Patients with unmet needs are defined as those who were not treated with advanced therapies within 180 days following identification of moderate-to-severe Ulcerative Colitis.
3. The 30- and 180-day grace periods were based on medical advice from clinical practice and expert opinions.

Advanced therapy: biologicals or targeted synthetic medicines, including infliximab, adalimumab, golimumab, ustekinumab, vedolizumab, tofacitinib. (Raine T, Bonovas S, Burisch J, et al. ECCO Guidelines on Therapeutics in Ulcerative Colitis: Medical Treatment. Journal of Crohn's and Colitis. 2021;16(1):2-17.)

Key Takeaways
The graph shows the survival probability (life expectancy) after a diagnosis of ulcerative colitis in Hong Kong. The 5-year and 9-year survival rates were higher than 90% and 85%, respectively.