1. Incident cases from 2023 to 2032 were forecasted using ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) models, trained on historical data from 2003 to 2022.
2. Incidence rate was calculated by dividing the no. of newly diagnosed cases (no previous diagnosis) for that year by the midyear population estimate.
3. Age standardization was performed using the direct method, with the 2022 Hong Kong Population as the reference.
4. Incidence rates from 2023 to 2032 were forecasted using ARIMA models, trained on historical data from 2003 to 2022.
Abbreviations: PI: Prediction interval.
1. Prevalent cases are persons who were existing cases in the population each year.
2. Prevalent cases from 2023 to 2032 were forecasted using ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) models, trained on historical data from 2003 to 2022.
3. Prevalence rate was calculated by dividing the number of existing cases for that year by the midyear population estimate.
4. Age standardization was performed using the direct method, with the 2022 Hong Kong Population as the reference.
5. Prevalence rates from 2023 to 2032 were forecasted using ARIMA models, trained on historical data from 2003 to 2022.
Abbreviations: PI: Prediction interval.
1. The cost refers to the all-cause cost for that calendar year, including all healthcare resource utilization expenses across all settings.
2. Unit costs are based on fees and charges for public hospital services set by the Hospital Authority, effective from 2017.
3. Cost projections (2023–2032) were forecasted using ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) models trained on 2003–2022 data, adjusted for the 2020–2022 pandemic.
1. Moderate-to-severe Crohn's Disease was defined as steroid-dependent or steroid-refractory, or direct surgery without the use of advanced therapies (biologic therapies and targeted small molecules), or direct use of advanced therapies without the above.
2. Patients with unmet needs are defined as those who were not treated with advanced therapies within 180 days following identification of moderate-to-severe Crohn's Disease.
3. The 30- and 180-day grace periods were based on medical advice from clinical practice and expert opinions.
Advanced therapy: biologicals or targeted synthetic medicines, including infliximab, adalimumab, golimumab, ustekinumab, vedolizumab, tofacitinib, certolizumab pegol, risankizumab, upadacitinib. (Gordon H, Minozzi S, Kopylov U, et al. ECCO guidelines on therapeutics in Crohn’s disease: medical treatment. Journal of Crohn's and Colitis. 2024;18(10):1531-1555.)
