Key Takeaways
Prevalence Cases (Existing Cases)
The number of prevalent Crohn’s disease cases in Hong Kong is steadily rising and is expected to continue increasing from 2,599 in 2023 to 3,852 in 2032, with consistently more cases in males than in females (2,592 vs. 1,209 in 2032).
Prevalence Rate
The prevalence of Crohn’s disease in Hong Kong is rising and expected to rise from 3.59 to 6.86 per 10,000 persons between 2023 and 2032, with higher rates in males than females (11.11 vs. 3.61 in 2032).

Notes:
1. Prevalent cases are persons who were existing cases in the population each year.
2. Prevalent cases from 2023 to 2032 were forecasted using ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) models, trained on historical data from 2003 to 2022.
3. Prevalence rate was calculated by dividing the number of existing cases for that year by the midyear population estimate.
4. Age standardization was performed using the direct method, with the 2022 Hong Kong Population as the reference.
5. Prevalence rates from 2023 to 2032 were forecasted using ARIMA models, trained on historical data from 2003 to 2022.

Average annual percentage change (AAPC) indicates the average yearly rate of increase or decrease in a value over a specified period.

Key Takeaways
The healthcare costs of Crohn’s disease in Hong Kong are projected to increase gradually from HK$85.96 million in 2023 to HK$122.37 million in 2032. This increase is mainly due to rising outpatient and inpatient costs, which are growing at average annual rates of 6.90% and 3.06%, respectively.

Notes
1. The cost refers to the all-cause cost for that calendar year, including all healthcare resource utilization expenses across all settings.
2. Unit costs are based on fees and charges for public hospital services set by the Hospital Authority, effective from 2017.
3. Cost projections (2023–2032) were forecasted using ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) models trained on 2003–2022 data, adjusted for the 2020–2022 pandemic.

Key Takeaways
More people with moderate-to-severe Crohn’s disease in Hong Kong are receiving timely advanced therapy within 30 or up to 180 days after the condition onset, with the proportion rising from 41.5% in 2014 to 73.1% in 2022. However, between 2020 and 2022, the proportion of patients facing delays in receiving advanced therapy plateaued, remaining between 26% and 30%. This trend underscores a persistent unmet clinical need that is expected to continue, highlighting the importance of preparing the healthcare system to meet future demand.

Notes
1. Moderate-to-severe Crohn's Disease was defined as steroid-dependent or steroid-refractory, or direct surgery without the use of advanced therapies (biologic therapies and targeted small molecules), or direct use of advanced therapies without the above.
2. Patients with unmet needs are defined as those who were not treated with advanced therapies within 180 days following identification of moderate-to-severe Crohn's Disease.
3. The 30- and 180-day grace periods were based on medical advice from clinical practice and expert opinions.

Advanced therapy: biologicals or targeted synthetic medicines, including infliximab, adalimumab, golimumab, ustekinumab, vedolizumab, tofacitinib, certolizumab pegol, risankizumab, upadacitinib. (Gordon H, Minozzi S, Kopylov U, et al. ECCO guidelines on therapeutics in Crohn’s disease: medical treatment. Journal of Crohn's and Colitis. 2024;18(10):1531-1555.)

Key Takeaways
The 9-year survival probability (life expectancy)  since diagnosis for patients with Crohn’s disease in Hong Kong was approximately 94%, with a slightly higher rate observed in females compared to males (97.0% vs. 93.0%)