Key Takeaways
Prevalence Cases (Existing Cases)
The number of people living with depression in Hong Kong is projected to remain largely stable from 2023 to 2032, averaging around 15,210 prevalent cases annually. Female consistently account for a higher number of prevalent cases (10981) compared with male (4229).

Prevalence Rate
The age-standardized prevalence rate of depression is expected to stay relatively stable over the forecast period, fluctuating around 20–23 per 10,000 population. Female maintain higher rates (≈28-30 per 10,000) than male (≈12–14 per 10,000), indicating a persistent gender gap in disease burden.

Notes
1. Prevalent cases are all persons who were existing cases in the population each year.
2. Prevalent cases from 2023 to 2032 were forecasted using ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) models, trained on historical data from 2014 to 2022.
3. Prevalence rate was calculated by dividing the number of existing cases for that year by the midyear population estimate.
4. Age standardization was performed using the direct method, with the 2022 Population in Hong Kong as the reference.
5. Prevalence rates from 2023 to 2032 were forecasted using ARIMA models, trained on historical data from 2014 to 2022.

Average annual percentage change (AAPC) indicates the average yearly rate of increase or decrease in a value over a specified period.

Key Takeaways
The total healthcare costs for depression in Hong Kong is projected to remain substantial and relatively stable between 2023 and 2032, averaging around HK$2.5–3.0 billion annually. Inpatient care continues to account for the largest share of total costs (over 70% of total expenditure).

Notes
1. The cost refers to the all-cause cost for that calendar year, including all healthcare resource utilization expenses across all settings.
2. Unit costs are based on fees and charges for public hospital services set by the Hospital Authority, effective from 2017.
3. Cost projections (2023–2032) were forecasted using ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) models trained on 2014–2022 data, adjusted for the 2019–2022 pandemic and social fluctuation.

Key Takeaways
The number of patients with treatment-resistant depression (not treated with esketamine) in Hong Kong has been steadily increasing across successive cohorts, indicating a growing unmet treatment need. It indicates a widening treatment gap and highlights a rising unmet clinical need that will continue to place increasing demand on mental health services through 2032 if access to effective therapies is not expanded.

Note:
1. Patients with unmet needs are defined as those who had taken at least two antidepressant regimens for a minimum of 28 days each (allowing gaps of up to 14 days) and required a third regimen to confirm failure of the previous two.
2. Each curve tracks a cohort of patients (in the particular year) newly diagnosed with depression with each data point representing the cumulative number of individuals from that cohort who have developed treatment-resistant depression by that calendar year.

Key Takeaways
The 9-year survival probability (life expectancy) since diagnosis for patients with depression in Hong Kong is approximately 88% overall, with female showing higher survival (~90%) than male (~80%).