Projecting the 10-year costs of care and mortality burden of depression until 2032: a Markov modelling study developed from real-world data

Publication Date
2024-02-06
Journal
The Lancet Regional Health Western Pacific
Author(s)
Vivien Kin Yi Chan, Man Yee Mallory Leung, Deliang Yang, Sandra Sau Man Chan, Martin Knapp, Dawn Craig, Yingyao Chen, David Makram Bishai, Terry Yat Sang Lum, Gloria Hoi Yan Wong, Esther Wai Yin Chan, Ian Chi Kei Wong, Xue Li
Abstract

Findings

With 9217 new patients in 2023, our closed cohort model projected the 10-year cumulative costs of all-cause and psychiatric care to reach US$309.0 million and US$58.3 million, respectively, with 899 deaths (case fatality rate: 9.8%) by 2032. In our open cohort model, 55,849–57,896 active prevalent cases would cost more than US$322.3 million and US$60.7 million, respectively, with more than 943 deaths annually from 2023 to 2032. Fewer than 20% of cases would live with TRD or comorbidities but contribute 31–54% of the costs. The greatest collective burden would occur in women aged above 40, but men aged above 65 and below 25 with medical history would have the highest costs per patient-year. The key cost drivers were relevant to the early disease stages.