We shared the incidence and prevalence of Inflammatory Bowel Disease in Hong Kong, Japan, and the United States, as well as the forecasted disease burden during 2023 and 2032. The prevalence of Inflammatory Bowel Disease was forecasted to increase in all three regions, while incidence estimates vary. The forecasts showed distinct patterns across disease subtype, sex, and age groups. Health systems need to plan for the predicted increasing prevalence among different demographics.
Current and Forecasted 10-Year Prevalence and Incidence of Inflammatory Bowel Disease in Hong Kong, Japan, and the US: An ARIMA Modeling Study from Territory-wide and Nationwide Data
Yin Zhang1, Hsingwen Chung2, Qiwen Fang1, Deliang Yang1, Youran Xu3, Yongjing Zhang3, Ian CK Wong1,4,5, Hong Qiu2*, Xue Li1,4*
ABSTRACT
Introduction
The global exacerbation of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) has increased the disease burden and economic impact. Gaps remain in understanding the IBD burden in Asian and Western populations.
Aims
To estimate and compare the current and forecasted 10-year incidence and prevalence of IBD in the US, Japan, and Hong Kong.
Methods
Patients diagnosed with IBD were identified from two large employment-based healthcare claims databases in the US and Japan (2010-2022), and a population-wide electronic medical records database in Hong Kong (2003-2022). We used Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average models to predict incidence and prevalence from 2023 to 2032, stratified by age, sex, and disease subtype, with 95% prediction intervals (PI). The forecasted annual average percentage change (AAPC) with 95% confidence intervals was calculated.
Results
In 2022, the IBD incidence per 100,000 was highest in the US (39.62) compared to Japan (26.48) and Hong Kong (4.68). By 2032, the gap between the US (41.86 [95%PI: 35.65, 48.08] per 100,000) and Japan (39.03) is forecasted to narrow, while remaining substantial with Hong Kong (6.19). The fastest forecasted increase in incidence is among those under 18 in Japan (AAPC: 9.06) and the US (AAPC: 4.43), and among adults aged 18-44 in Hong Kong (AAPC: 5.78). The forecasted 2032 incidence per 100,000 in Japan (male: 44.61, female: 33.07) and Hong Kong (male: 8.90, female: 4.19) is higher for males, with the opposite in the US (male: 40.60, female: 42.96). The forecasted incidence of Ulcerative Colitis in Japan (33.28) will surpass the US (23.57) and far exceed Hong Kong (3.17) by 2032; the incidence of Crohn's Disease is expected to be highest in the US (18.31).
Discussion
The projected burden of IBD is increasing in three countries, displaying distinct patterns across age groups, sex, and disease subtypes. Targeted prevention and treatment measures are essential.
*Co-corresponding authors
